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Real Estate Value Sensitivity Calculator
A sensitivity calculator shows how a deal's outcome changes as key assumptions move. This one grids implied value across a range of net operating income (NOI) and exit cap rates — the two variables that most drive commercial real estate valuation. Enter a base NOI and exit cap rate to see the value matrix.
Implied value — NOI (rows) × exit cap rate (columns)
| NOI ＼ Cap | 5.00% | 5.50% | 6.00% | 6.50% | 7.00% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| $0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| $0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| $0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| $0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Value = NOI ÷ exit cap rate. The center cell is your base case; a lower cap rate (right) or higher NOI (down) raises value.
Formula
Value = Net Operating Income (NOI) ÷ Exit Cap Rate, computed across a ±10% NOI × ±1.0% cap-rate grid
Frequently asked questions
- Why is exit cap rate so important?
- Because value equals NOI divided by the cap rate, a small change in the exit cap rate has an outsized effect on sale price and therefore on IRR — often more than rent growth. That's why underwriting an unjustified cap-rate compression is a common way to overstate returns.
- Can Origentic run full return sensitivity?
- Yes. Beyond this value grid, Origentic runs full two-variable sensitivity on levered IRR and equity multiple — for example exit cap versus rent growth — with a complete engine run for every cell, not interpolation.
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